Good Investment Options For Retirement: Dollar Cost Averaging

You've probably heard of dollar cost averaging (DCA) in the past. If not, it's an investment strategy taking the form of investing equal monetary amounts regularly and periodically over specific time periods (such as $100 monthly) in a particular investment. The main benefit: more shares are purchased when prices are low and fewer shares are purchased when prices are high.

We've put this strategy to the test. 1929 and 2008 were the worst years in the last century for equity markets so we thought it might be interesting to test DCA during these periods. How did DCA trough the worst two periods of the last century for equity markets? Our little study showed it produced impressive results. The following examples are for illustrative purpose and do not take into account dividends.

1929

Let's simulate the worst financial meltdown of the last century occurring at the end of the 1920's. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at the time (and still is) the most followed stock index. Its descent started after it reached a high of 380 in August 1929. The downward spiral lasted 3 years until it touched bottom at 41.22 on July 1932, a whopping 89.2% lower. Most investors were decimated at the time and the Great Depression coincided with the collapse.

How would a monthly DCA invested in the Dow have done during the same time span? In mid 1934, almost 5 years after the top of 1929, the Dow was still at the very low level of 103 or -72.89% from the summit. However, at that specific time, a monthly DCA strategy started at the top of the market would have already recovered all the losses. That's right; while buy and hold investors would be left with a little more than a quarter of their initial investment, the DCA investor would already be breaking even after the worst financial meltdown of the century. Furthermore, it took the Dow Jones 25 years - in November 1954 - to reach once again its all time high of 380 of 1929.

Bottom line: DCA not only reduces the risk of equity investment, it also provides a boost in returns when markets turn on the upside after a decline.

2008

1929 is ancient history and most of us were not there to witness it. However, we do remember 2008 when a similar event took place. However, the 2008 meltdown compared to the one of 1929 wasn't as dramatic. But as you probably know, it did harm a lot of pension funds and retirement accounts. Also, almost all equity investors took a beating during this period.

Here is a quick recap of the events. In October 2007, the Dow Jones reached an all time high of 14164. When Lehman Brothers collapsed one year later, markets went down pretty fast in the following weeks. From the Dow level the day before Lehman's chapter 11 to the bottom of 6547 reached in early March 2009 - 5 months later - the Dow had lost 40% of its value. At this level, the Dow stood at a -53.5% from its all time high of October 2007. How would have done a monthly DCA strategy in such a context? While the Dow Jones stands today (November 2010) at 11193, it's still 20% lower from the all time high of October 2007. However, the monthly DCA investor, who started investing at the top of the market in October 2007, would already be up 9% on its invested capital. Furthermore, one year ago - October 2009 - our DCA investor recovered entirely its investment, the buy and hold approach would still be 25% under.

Bottom line: the 2008 meltdown was short lived for the DCA investor. Buy and hold investors however, still have important losses on their books and nobody know when the markets will reach their all time highs again.